Investment Series
Posted on Saturday, July 2, 2011
Filed under
Fundamentals,
Investment Series
| 2 Comments
Series #1
First step in stock investment
On several occasions, friends have asked me about how to invest, particularly in stock investment.
Often rather than not, I’d launch a long-winded “lesson” that most can hardly digest.
For the benefit of most, I've decided to mint it down in a series of entries, which i will call Investment Series.
I promise to try and keep it really short. (:
Let's start this investment series by knowing how to start investing.
Step 1. Open an investment account.
You have to open an investment account to buy stocks/shares.
You can open the account with one of the following Broker firms:
Singapore:
1. DBS Vickers (http://www.dbsvonline.com)
2. OCBC Securities (http://www.iocbc.com)
3. UOB Kay Hian (http://www.uobkayhian.com)
Indonesia:
1. E-trading Securities (http://www.etrading.co.id)
2. CIMB Sekuritas (http://www.itradecimb.co.id)
That's just to name a few, of course there are a lot more.
I personally use DBS Vickers to buy Singapore stock (due to low commission rate when you pay in cash) and E-trading Securities for Indonesia stock (merely for convenience’s sake).
Things you should take note of:
1. Deposit
You may be required to deposit a certain amount of money to open the investment account, which you can use to buy stocks subsequently.
For instance, DBS Vickers requires a deposit of S$ 1,000 and Rp 10 Million for CIMB Sekuritas.
2. Commission rate
You'll be charged a commision rate when you buy/sell stocks.
It varies across brokers, although it averages at S$ 25-30 in Singapore and Rp 20,000-30,000 in Indonesia.
I could end this entry with an impractical statement:
"Happy trading and you will soon be rich and happily ever after"
But that is something that I don't agree with.
I’d rather remind you cautiously that:
”When you are not sure of what you are doing, do NOTHING until you find out”
If you are still with me till this point, you should congratulate yourself. (:
Stay tuned for next entry in which I'll be writing about Investing versus Speculation (gambling), which i reckon is a far more important topic.
Playing with Risk 2.0
Posted on Saturday, March 20, 2010
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Fundamentals
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I just read an article (click here for original source) which perfectly describe how to play with risk as written in my previous blog.
Shame on me for selectively copied and pasted from the article into my blog. I give full credit to the author and hope that the share will benefit you as well.
===================================================
Imagine if I challenged you to a simple game: I fill a jar with 50 black marbles and 50 red marbles and propose to draw 10 marbles from the jar. For each black marble in the draw, I agree to pay you whatever dollar amount you choose, provided that you will pay me the same amount for each red marble pulled from the jar.
Knowing that the distribution of black and red marbles is 50/50, most rational people would decline to play this game for real money. But what if I agreed to remove 10 red marbles from the jar before we started? With the distribution now 50/40 in favor of black marbles, it becomes sensible, even wise to play this game for money. If I remove 20 red marbles to make the distribution 50/30, a rational person should be willing to raise the value of their wager. And if I remove 40 red marbles before starting the game it becomes sensible to “bet big,” whatever “big” means for the player involved.
The logic of this sequence is straightforward – when the mix of marbles is 50/50, the likelihood of winning or losing the game is purely random, but once a few of the red marbles have been removed from the jar the distribution of possible outcomes becomes skewed – any given draw of 10 marbles is more likely to contain more blacks than more reds. The most probable outcome is no longer random.
A recent article in this publication by Joseph A. Tomlinson reminds readers that the models used by most financial planners assume the distribution of future returns in the asset markets is always random, like drawing marbles from a jar with an equal mix of reds and blacks. Tomlinson goes on to suggest that this assumption of randomness in the asset markets may be flawed. He supports his point with a study of historical correlations between starting valuation and subsequent returns in the stock market over rolling periods of 1 and 10 years.
The table below shows the distribution of every possible three-year return in the U.S. stock market – measured as of each month-end – between January 1884 and June 2009. This period encompasses 1,506 observations measured over rolling 36-month holding periods.
U.S Stock Market*
1884 – 2009
Rolling 3-Year Holding Periods
753 Observations
| PE 11.54 | PE 19.20 | |
| Median 3-Year Return | 16.20% | 6.85% |
| Average 3-Year Return | 17.03% | 7.07% |
| % of Periods with Negative Return | 0.00% | 28.10% |
| Best 3-Year Return | 194.52% | 134.08% |
| Worst 3-Year Return | 0.85% | (80.84%) |
*U.S. stock market returns for the period 1884 through 1926 are derived from the Shiller market index at www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm. Returns from 1926 through 1969 represent the “Large Company Stocks” category from Ibbotson Associates. Returns from 1970 onward represent the S&P 500 Index.
Sources: Robert J. Shiller, Standard & Poor’s; Ibbotson Associates; Capital Advisors, Inc.
These data prompt numerous worthwhile questions for professional investors and financial planners. Here are three:
- Do professionals do their clients a disservice if they offer similar advice about stocks regardless of whether the starting P/E ratio is high or low, as so many financial software platforms prescribe?
- If presented with this data today, when the Shiller P/E Ratio is over 20, how many investors would knowingly accept a nearly one-in-three chance of losing money over three years in exchange for an expected annualized return of 6.85% with a majority of their savings (taken from the distribution of outcomes associated with a Shiller P/E of 19.20 or higher)?
- Would it be irresponsible for investment advisors to encourage a widow or a retiree to tilt her portfolio more aggressively toward stocks whenever the Shiller P/E sinks below 12?
The evidence from the real-world history of asset markets suggests that market returns are not totally random. Sometimes “Mr. Market” removes a few red marbles from the jar, and sometimes he removes blacks. Simple indicators like the Shiller P/E Ratio can reveal which marbles have been removed at any given time. It is our job as investors to pay attention and adjust our wagers accordingly.
”Investing Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money
Investing Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No 1”
~ Warren Buffett
PT Mustika Ratu – Q3 2009
Posted on Sunday, November 8, 2009
Filed under
Keep the Value,
Mustika Ratu,
Value Stalking
| 3 Comments
This is another “KEEP THE VALUE” company.
Honestly I was tempted to put her as “STALK THE WINNER”.
But not for now, she still needs to prove herself.
Who is PT Mustika Ratu?
an Indonesian company that is engaged in the production, distribution and marketing of herbal-based and natural cosmetics, herbal drinks products:
Mustika Ratu Tox Tea, Slimming Gel, Daun Sirih Toothpaste, Moor’s, etc
The Company also produces body care products for men, opens and franchises spa centers, and creates home spa products.
KEEP THE VALUES (see the above tabulation image for reference)
From the tabulation, you may notice that the NAV is around Rp 716/share
What is NAV?
NAV is the value of the company.
or in other word, if the company is to close down today, it can sell itself for Rp 716 per share (this is based on the rough calculation).
The stock price @ 8 Nov 2009 is Rp 440 per share.
What does this mean?
It basically tells you that Mr Market (trader) values the company at Rp 440 per share. So, the market value is only 61% of company’s real value.
In other words, you are buying the company with discount of 49%.
And this is not including the brands that company owns.
What could go wrong?
The debt level is low. This is a good thing actually, but it also shows that the company is extremely conservative. They are playing safe with no big expansion plan in future. At least in my opinion. This is the reason why, I decided NOT to put this company under “STALK THE WINNER” category.
What could be the catalyst?
Profit margin improvement will be the key factor for the company to grow.
The company should review and streamline the business.
This means that, the management should focus and expanding business or products with good prospect and profit margin. At the same time streamlining bad businesses and products.
If that is so, one day, market will value this company to its real value.
PT Semen Gresik – Q2 2009
Posted on Thursday, October 15, 2009
Filed under
Semen Gresik,
Stalk the Winner,
Value Stalking
| 4 Comments
Let's stalk the winner by stalking PT. Semen Gresik tbk
Who is Semen Gresik?
an Indonesian Cement company, specialized in:
Ordinary Portland cement type I, II, III and V;
Portland Pozzalana cement, gypsum and pozzolanic materials; Portland composite cement; Super Mansory cement; oil well cement class G high sulfate resistant, and special blended cement.
Or to cut it short, this is all-about-cement company.
Price @ 14 Oct 09 = Rp 6800
STALK THE WINNER (see the above tabulation image for reference)
From the tabulation, you may notice of the following:
5 Years Growth Rate (2004 – 2008)
Net Margin is improving from 8% to 20%.
The indicator tells us that:
* company is gaining more moat advantageous over the years as it positions itself as the market leader.
* company is managed well and more efficiently.
Cash Flow is always positive and growing for 5 years
Although the company is expanding aggressively, the cash flow is managed extremely well.
This is achieved amid pressure to pay dividend regularly as normally required from state-owned company.
ROE growing from nice 14% to great 31%.
ROE is a good indicator of the return from our invested money.
To put bluntly, it is basically telling us that you get 30% return of your money invested in the companies.
Debt level
Until Q2 2009, total debt is Rp 230,578 compared to total cash of Rp 4,750,930. The debt level is just <5% of cash on hand.
Note: the healthy debt level is normally set as 30% What could go wrong?
Now, everything is perfectly pointing to a Winner company.
So you ask me, what are you worrying about?
Let’s be paranoid, let’s ask ourselves, what is the consequences of being wrong?
Let give ourselves some margin of safety. Should we?
I would consider the company is valuable if the PE is less than 15.
Let’s see where is it now?
Price as @ 14 Oct 2009 is Rp 6800, with this price, PE is about 13.
What could be the catalyst?
Improvement in revenue will be the catalyst for the company.
Since it has achieved the awesome level of Profit Margin and efficiency.
It is now all up to the revenue.
If the revenue picks up strongly then just relax and watch the growth story.
If that is so, all you need to do is relax, get a pack of heci (a nice food from my hometown) and watch the great show ahead.
”If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is … almost never”
~ Philips Fisher
PT Berlina tbk - Q2 2009
Posted on Friday, October 9, 2009
Filed under
Berlina,
Keep the Value,
Value Stalking
| 1 Comment
Let's start this value stalking journey by stalking PT. Berlina tbk
Who is PT Berlina Tbk?
an Indonesian plastic manufacturer, specialized in:
BOTTLES, TOOTHBRUSH, CLOSURES / CAP, INJECTION PARTS
for some well known brands for instance:
Dettol, Dove, Citra, Betadine, Pepsodent etc
Price @ 9 Oct 09 = Rp 660 KEEP THE VALUES (see the above tabulation image for reference)
From the tabulation, you may notice that the NAV is around Rp 1330/share
What is NAV?
NAV is the value of the company.
or in other word, if the company is to close down today, it can sell itself for Rp 1330 per share (this is based on the rough calculation).
Now, you also see that the stock price @ 9 Oct 2009 is Rp 660 per share.
What does this mean?
It basically tells you that Mr Market (trader) values the company at Rp 660 per share. So, the market value is only half of company value.
I reckon this as Margin of Safety.
If you have read “playing with risk”, you will notice that we are trying to reduce the risk, to get control of the game.
How can it be done?
Now, if you think of it, you are betting Rp 660 to strike Rp 1330.
What could go wrong?
The debt level is high, 77% way higher than the healthy <30%.
But having said that, the debt are mostly long term debt.
There is no issue for short term debt, as the cash held is more than enough to pay it off.
What could be the catalyst?
Profit margin improvement will be the key factor for the company to grow.
The company must focus on work efficiency and cost cutting to improve the profit margin.
If that is so, one day, market will value this company to its real value.
Value Stalking
What is Value Stalking?
It is just my idea of:
First Strategy (Keep the Values)
* Finding company with good valuation, with Margin of Safety
(Value of the company more than market cap)
* Stalking the company for any changes to the value.
Second Strategy (Stalk the Winners)
* Finding company with good growth, with Strong Moat advantages
(Wide profit margin)
* Stalking the stock price of the company for the opportunity to buy
Disclaimer:
This blog is purely to share my opinions, I don’t hold any responsibilities for any inaccuracy of data or analysis provided.
This blog is intended to be a panel to discuss about valuation of companies listed in IDX (Indonesian Exchange).
Hence, participations and comments are highly appreciated.
Again, any opinions and discussions should be taken with a grain of salt.
Do your own analysis before pull the trigger.
or you will be driving with eye-shut.
”Most People would rather die than think. Many do.”
~ Bertrand Russell
”It’s not risky to buy at a fraction of what they are worth”
~ Warren Buffett
Playing with R.i.S.K
Filed under
Fundamentals
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Risk -> according to wikipedia is:
‘Uncertainty of Outcome’
To cut it short: Risk is "B.A.D"
The question is
why are we playing with Risk?
are we Risking ourselves?
Let's illustrate with a game:
if I have numbers from 0 -> 9, you are to bet ONE number, will you bet?
most probably NO..
why? cos your winning probability is only 1/10 or 10%
...You are taking Risk of 90%.. that's a Hugeee Risk ...
Now...
if we are to play big and small... would you bet?
Most of people with gambling-minded will say without hesitate:
Y.E.S.. Let's get it on..
so can you win? probably.. it's a 50:50 chance..
or I prefer to call it 50:50 Risk..
Then...
If you ask me...
Am i going to play the above 2 games?
the answer is NO.. a big NO..
W.H.Y....??
Reason being: taking risk of 50% is not necessary...
This is a game of luck... you don't have control ...
or in other word.. you can do NOTHING even if you try your best..
That's why.. most people love to play mind conscious game..
such as Poker...
Is playing poker risky??
Yes definitely... for people who don't know how to play..
they will be slaughtered pigs..
For people good in playing it,
is there any Risk?
I won't say NO, but it's not a risky game for them..
Why is it so??
* If i know my card is bad... i can always play save... i know i will lose but
not losing too much capital..
* If i know my card is quite ok... i can try to win...
* If i get a really good card... I know.. its time.. to win big... (in poker face)
There is a ControL... the key here is ConTroL
It is to know how to play the game well..
and to control yourself ...
all depends on you...
You control the risk... you reduce it to your advantage...
Having said that, the risk is always there, when you don’t know how to eliminate risk or you don’t even know whether something is risky or not.. then the advice to you is … to find out before you do anything..
”When you don’t know what to do…. do nothing…”
quoted from a “forgotten-name” book.